Gold vs. the Stock Market in 2026: Why the Two Have Parted Ways

For much of 2025, gold and U.S. stocks rose together. In 2026 they have gone separate ways. The S&P 500 is up by double digits for the year, while gold has given back its January surge and is trading slightly below where it started. Looking at why helps explain what each asset tends to respond to, and why many investors follow both.

The scoreboard so far

The S&P 500 closed 2025 at 6,845.50, a 16.39% annual gain, Reuters reported. On October 15, 2026, it closed at 7,744.06, according to TheStreet’s market wrap. That works out to a gain of about 13.1% year to date, a figure we calculated from those two closing levels.

The path included new highs. Advisor Perspectives noted a record close on August 13, CNBC reported the index’s first close above 7,800 on October 5, and 24/7 Wall St. reported another record on October 6. Volatility returned this week: on October 14, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.9% after hotter-than-expected September inflation data, according to Zacks via Yahoo Finance.

Gold’s year has been a different story. Spot gold finished 2025 at $4,308.30 after a gain of about 62%, according to the Press Trust of India. Reuters quoted spot at $4,177.82 early on October 16, about 3% below that level on our calculation. In between, gold set a record in late January. The World Gold Council (WGC) puts the LBMA Gold Price high at $5,405.00 on January 29. Gold then suffered a steep second-quarter decline before partly recovering.

Why the two have diverged

Interest rates are a large part of the story. Gold produces no income, so when yields rise, holding it costs more in forgone interest. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, and CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters on October 16 showed traders assigning high odds to a further increase by December. In the WGC’s mid-year analysis, momentum, risk and uncertainty, and currency effects explained more of gold’s first-half moves than rates did. Even so, rate-hike expectations featured heavily in coverage of the second-quarter sell-off.

Stocks, by contrast, are claims on company earnings, and earnings expectations have been strong in parts of the market. 24/7 Wall St., citing analyst Jim Bianco, reported that a basket of 41 AI-related companies accounted for about 48.7% of the S&P 500’s total market value. That level of concentration means the index’s direction depends heavily on a relatively small group of large technology companies.

Why investors watch both

Gold and equities do different jobs, which is why many portfolios hold some of each and why comparisons between them come up so often.

• Different sources of return: stocks can pay dividends and grow with profits, while gold’s return comes only from price changes.
• Diversification: WGC research says gold’s correlation with equities is not reliably negative. It can rise when stocks rally strongly, but it has tended to turn more negative during sharp equity sell-offs.
• Crisis behavior: the WGC notes that gold gained 21% in U.S. dollar terms from December 2007 to February 2009, while most risk assets fell.
• Different risks: gold is not a low-volatility asset. The WGC reported that gold’s realized volatility rose above 50% during the first-half swing, compared with a 20-year average of 17%.

The WGC is a gold-industry body, and its research relies on historical data that does not guarantee future results. Its findings are best read as context, not as a forecast.

A word on time frames

Comparisons depend heavily on the starting date. Measured from January 1, stocks are clearly ahead this year. Measured from the January peak, gold is down about a quarter. Over twelve months, Fortune’s price tracker showed spot gold at $4,147 on October 15, a little below the $4,187 it showed a year earlier. Over two years, both assets have risen substantially. Any single snapshot can mislead, which is one reason many long-term investors focus on the overall mix of what they hold rather than on which asset is winning this month.

For ongoing daily coverage of both markets, BOSSTOX follows equities, rates and commodities news.

Not financial advice: this article is for general information and education only. Lumo.gold does not buy or sell gold, provide valuations or give investment advice.

Sources

• Wall Street ends year's final session lower but posts big annual gains for 2025 (Reuters, via MarketScreener), 2025-12-31
• Stock Market Today (Oct. 15, 2026): Dow edges higher as tech sell-off pivots (TheStreet), 2026-10-15
• Stock Market News for Oct 15, 2026 (Zacks, via Yahoo Finance), 2026-10-15
• S&P 500 Snapshot: Stocks Rally to Close Out Flat Week (Advisor Perspectives), 2026-10-02
• S&P 500 posts first close above 7,800, boosted by tech gains and cooler yields (CNBC), 2026-10-05
• S&P 500 Just Hit Record High in October (24/7 Wall St.), 2026-10-12
• Gold, silver ease on year-end trade; log strong gains in 2025 (PTI, via Outlook Money), 2026-01-01
• Gold gains on softer dollar, but heads for weekly fall (Reuters, via Business Recorder), 2026-10-16
• Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Point break (World Gold Council), 2026-07-01
• Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), 2026-09-16
• Current price of gold: October 15, 2026 (Fortune), 2026-10-15
• Gold as a strategic asset: 2025 edition, Diversification (World Gold Council), 2025-01-23